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Some people remain attached to a theory that can be described as resource scarcity. At its heart this theory suggests that resource development follows a linear pattern in which low-cost resources are developed first, meaning that most if not all future development must be more costly. Unfortunately the history of the industry does not support this view. If anything the experience of the past few decades suggests that the opposite is true.
All three factors, says Mr Koepke, were at work in the Mexican currency crisis of 1994-95, when the Fed embarked on a tightening cycle in jumps of 25, 50 and crucially, in November 1994, of 75 basis points.